Peace to you. <3 I am Elia Jay Scott (she/her); a bachelor of physics and computer science with minor mathematics, NDSU 2016; a soon-to-be bachelor of social work, UBCV 2026; the cellist-vocalist of @ELIAHAVAH on Youtube, where I make environmentalist cello cover music videos, celebrating climate activist groups; the GREEN JOBS GUARANTEE Transcanada 1 highway bannerdrop campaign climate protestor (see below); and an aspiring disciple of Love incarnate, Jesus of Nazareth.
(PROTEST CANCELATIONS— Apr 20 Mon through May 6 Wedn.)
Greenhouse gas emissions are currently RISING, meaning we are not merely heading but in fact ACCELERATING toward climate breakdown and our own self-destruction.
Once the first major synchronous multiple global agricultural breadbasket region crop failure event hits (Caparas et al, 2021; hereafter referred to as a Caparas Event), it is over for us; 9 billion humans will not survive without functioning agriculture. Our food system is humanity’s greatest and most swiftly lethal vulnerability to climate change; this has been criminally underreported in the media. If CO₂ net emissions continue to increase, and CO₂ cumulative concentration therefore continues to accelerate upward, both the instantaneous probability of a Caparas Event occurring will scale according to t², until it becomes statistical certainty; and the magnitude (in total crop yield deficit) of that event, when it does eventually inevitably occur, also will scale according to t², until it becomes an extinction level event. It has been said, Man and Woman are 9 missed meals from anarchy at any given time. Total societal collapse and world human population implosion on the gigadeath scale WILL RESULT, if we continue on our current trajectory – inevitably, with absolutely 100 % certainty, according to the unbendable, tyrannical, merciless laws of physics.
There is zero reasonable scientific doubt about this. The greenhouse effect is a LAW OF PHYSICS; every OUNCE of greenhouse gas we continue to emit WILL worsen the climate crisis; there is NO CEILING on how bad it can get – other than the ceiling our mother earth herself will impose on us, by our eventual annihilation. Anyone telling you otherwise is spreading an ECOCIDAL, OMNICIDAL LIE in the service of big oil.
The Siberian permafrost melt gas release feedback (Rößger et al, 2022) and the Amazon rainforest dieback effect (Boulton et al, 2022) both likely have been activated by our actions; this means that climate breakdown will accelerate EVEN FASTER. We therefore no longer have ANY TIME to spare.
WE MUST IMMEDIATELY IMPLEMENT THE FOLLOWING—
(1) GREEN JOBS GUARANTEE,
to create the necessary massive workforce for the rapid Green Transition, counter job-losses from outsourcing and automation/“AI”, and give everyone who needs it a decent living and a training for a living
+ (2) CONVERT POWER GRID,
to 100 % solar, wind, hydro, and (strictly regulated) nuclear
+ (3) TRANSITION TRANSPORT,
massively expand public transit in both local bus/metro and long-distance high-speed rail, enact strong EV consumer subsidy and production mandate – NO NEW GAS AUTOS, penalize frequent flying
+ (4) DAIRY/MEAT SUBSTS,
massively expand both development and production, til consumer-end prices-per-mass lower than equivalent non-plantbased dairy/meat, to support noncoërcive and economical dietary transition
+ (5) 1 TRILLION TREES NOW,
MONITOR, MAINTAIN, AND PROTECT both all surviving old forest and new reforestation in perpetuity by international law, prosecute all ecocide-omnicide at the Hague
→ NET NEG 2035
→ LIFE.
Re # 4— Animal agriculture is the second-largest contributor to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, by CO₂ equivalence, after fossil fuels. (Steinfeld et al, 2006)
Re # 5— Trees are the ONLY carbon-capture technology that actually works and can be deployed at scale; but they must begin being planted NOW, so that they have time to grow to maturity and thus full absorption potential. This must be done in conjunction WITH, not replacement of, EMISSIONS REDUCTION, to begin to reverse the damage we have already done. (Lippke et al, 2021) If another form of environmental restoration (EG wetlands/peatlands, kelp-forests, etc) is found to be comparably efficacious and scalable to trees or greater, then it may of course be complemented. Ecological considerations must also always be factored in (EG avoiding monocultures, not damaging/replacing other critical ecosystems, etc); and also, social considerations (IE mutually beneficial partnership with local peoples).
Re # 1— The GREEN JOBS GUARANTEE can be considered one aspect – the first and most important aspect – of the larger Green New Deal concept, which also ideally would include the other four aspects of the Green Transition enumerated above. Not only is the Green Jobs Guarantee (A) practically requisite for us to accomplish the Green Transition, at the speed and scale at which we need to be accomplishing it, for the sake of human survival; not only is it (B) the perfect and timely solution to the growing economic crises of our time; not only is it (C) a highly economically progressive and desirable policy, in-and-of-itself and for its own sake, distributing wealth directly to the working class, giving everyone rewarding work; and not only will it be (D) a certain political winner, for any progressive and pro-climate political parties or actors who may advocate for it, and therefore win elections, which is required for the implementation and protection from repeal of pro-climate measures; but it will also, crucially, in the long-term, (E) directly materially connect the wellbeing of individual people and families to the wellbeing of the species and of the biosphere, and promote a culture of care for our planet.
If you live in the Vancouver metro area, BC, Canada, and wish to protest with me, in front of about 10’000 people/hour, all for the sake of our gorgeous planet and a livable future, come join my GREEN JOBS GUARANTEE Transcanada 1 highway bannerdrop campaign, on the Willingdon ave bridge, Burnaby, starting 2026 Febr 2, every Mon and Wedn 16:30–18:30 (EXCEPT cancelations, see above), at evening peak work-to-home traffic-hour – cold, hot, wind, calm, rain, or shine!! I’ll have signmaking supplies; anyone can drop in and join me, whichever day you want, however long you want!! Nothing like a little protest, to provide a constructive outlet for your ecorage, ecogrief, and ecoänxiety, and make you feel just a little bit less powerless!!
This protest is being conducted on the rightful and unceded territory of the Xwməθkwəy’əm (Musqueam) First Nation.
Figures 1A (top), 2A (bottom). Our historical and current trajectory. (Keeling, Keeling, 1958–present.) Note: An increasing CO₂ net emissions rate produces an accelerating CO₂ cumulative concentration.
This trajectory leads to death, for our species and the biosphere, with 100 % certainty, according to the laws of physics.
Figures 1B-i (top), 2B (bottom). Our possible future trajectories. A decreasing but still Net Positive emissions rate will produce a decelerating but still increasing cumulative concentration. It is only once we pass Net Zero, and reach NET NEGATIVE EMISSIONS, that cumulative concentration will begin decreasing, back down toward the climatologist consensus safe range for earth habitability, of below 350 PPM (CO₂.Earth, 2026). As of 2026 Febr 2, we currently are at about 428.4 PPM, and increasing by about 2.8 PPM/year. At or below 435 PPM, we have a decreased risk of a Caparas Event occurring; at or above 440 PPM, we have an increased risk (relative to the risk found, by the authors of Caparas et al (2021), for such an event to occur by 2030, on our current trajectory); and the higher we permit the cumulative concentration to get, the higher the risk will be.
Note critically: Our peak cumulative concentration depends linearly on our Net Zero date; every 2 year + 6 month + 26 day climate action delay in the Net Zero date will increase our eventual peak cumulative concentration by 5 PPM.
Note furthermore: As you may see, from the four alternative peak 435 PPM trajectories in figure 1B-i above, and from the animated figure 1B-ii below, every 1 year of delay in the start-date of major climate action moves the necessary Net Zero date backward by 6 months, to produce the same peak; in other words, every 2 days climate action delay in the start-date actually decreases our total time to reach Net Zero by 3 days, to produce the same peak.
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If departing from our historical trajectory at 2026 Jan 1— To produce peak cumulative concentration 430 PPM, equivalent to 1.55 ° C warming, the necessary Net Zero date would be 2027 Jan 17; 435 PPM, 1.60 ° C, 2029 Oct 7; 440 PPM, 1.65 ° C, 2032 June 10; 445 PPM, 1.70 ° C, 2035 Jan 27; 450 PPM, 1.75 ° C, 2037 Aug 29; 455 PPM, 1.80 ° C, 2040 Mar 16; 460 PPM, 1.85 ° C, 2042 Sept 18; 465 PPM, 1.90 ° C, 2045 Mar 8; 470 PPM, 1.95 ° C, 2047 Aug 14. |
 Figure 1B-ii. A forward-delaying start-date for major climate action results in a backward-moving necessary Net Zero date, to produce a given peak. |
If departing from our historical trajectory at a later date than 2026 Jan 1, simply take the amount of time since 2026 Jan 1, divide by two, and then subtract the result from the dates listed above. (So, for example, if departing at 2026 Febr 2, 32 days later, each of the dates above would move backward in time by 16 days.) A given peak becomes precluded, when the forward-delaying start-date intercepts the backward-moving Net Zero date, meaning we would have to instantly go straight to Net Zero to achieve that peak; after that point, it means we have overshot. (So, for example, 430 PPM will become precluded, when we overshoot it, which on our current trajectory will be 2026 Sept 12; next, 435 PPM will be precluded, when we overshoot it, on our current trajectory 2028 July 3.)
All above assumes purely parabolic net emissions trajectories, for mathematical simplicity; in reality the results will of course be different, depending on how much our actual trajectory diverges from the parabolic; the trajectories and dates above should be taken as merely characteristic. The temperature calibration assumes preïndustrial baseline cumulative concentration 275 PPM; and that we crossed 1.5 ° C warming on 2024 Nov 6, when cumulative concentration overshot 425 PPM. Figure 2B, to avoid cluttering, only depicts the peak 435 PPM start-date 2025 Jan 1 trajectory; the point of the figure is to show, not specifics, but simply the general behaviour of the cumulative concentration curve (Net Positive increasing, Net Zero maximum, Net Negative decreasing). In figures 1B, the particular post- Net Zero subtrajectories are purely hypothetical, and do not affect the calculation of the peaks; what matters is that we do in fact reach Net Negative, even if it is a shallower or deeper Net Negative than I have pictured here; but, deeper is better, because it means cumulative concentration will decrease faster.
Finally and importantly, please note that I am using a strict definition of Net Zero and the net emissions rate generally here, equal to the actual final measured Keeling Curve first time-derivative. So, any indirect ecological feedbacks – such as the aforementioned Siberian permafrost melt gas release feedback, and the Amazon rainforest dieback effect – are prefactored in, and simply must be overcome, through our reforestation and other environmental restoration-based carbon-capture efforts, in order to reach true Net Zero and true Net Negative under this definition.
